Politics

Exclusive polling: Emmanuel Macron strengthens his position after the first round of the French election

Emmanuel Macron is heading in the right direction to win the second spherical of the French presidential election with 54 per cent of the vote, in line with a YouGov and Datapraxis ballot seen by the New Statesman. Marine Le Pen, his far-right rival who additionally certified on 10 April for the second spherical, would win 46 per cent of the vote.

The hole between the candidates has elevated by six factors because the final time the match-up was polled as a hypothetical, indicating motion in direction of Macron now that it’s sure that he’ll face Le Pen within the second spherical. His share is up by three factors whereas hers is down by three factors, in line with this ballot, performed on 12-14 April.

Emmanuel Macron is main the second spherical of the French presidential election

YouGov and Datapraxis ballot (12-14 April)

“Macron seems to be in a slightly stronger position going into Easter,” mentioned Paul Hilder, the founding father of Datapraxis. “Having watered down his unpopular retirement reforms and signalled to left-wing voters that he needs them, he has improved his numbers among key groups such as rural and lower-educated voters. But his situation remains fragile: it should not be this close.”

Ninety-eight per cent of first-round voters for each Macron and Le Pen are positive of their selection and can vote the identical method within the second spherical, with simply 2 per cent switching. Eighty-nine per cent of voters for Éric Zemmour, a hard-line anti-immigration radical, will go for Le Pen in opposition to 11 per cent for Macron.

Left-wing voters will probably be essential to the end result of the second spherical. The ballot reveals that voters for the Inexperienced candidate Yannick Jadot and the centre-left Anne Hidalgo break up for Macron by over 90 per cent. Nevertheless, a few third of voters for the left-winger Jean-Luc Mélenchon who’ve made a selection will abstain or spoil their poll, whereas round one third will vote Macron and one-third for Le Pen.

“The biggest uncertainties for the second round remain turnout, and what Mélenchon’s voters and undecideds do,” Hilder mentioned. “The widespread expectation that Macron will win anyway could depress turnout among left-wing voters and the left behind, who mostly dislike the president and are looking more towards parliamentary elections later this year.”

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Older voters most strongly select Macron, in line with the ballot. Sixty per cent of over-55s will vote for Macron, the very best margin of any age group. Voters with a secondary training or decrease break up for Le Pen by 53 per cent, whereas voters with a better training diploma select Macron by 69 per cent. These in rural areas now say they may select Macron by 51 per cent, in contrast with 48 per cent within the earlier ballot.


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